{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b88970b2-f556-4cad-aaed-6b1729a1af48", "symbol": "RXD", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT HEALTHCARE (P/S)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.852, "architecture_energy": 71.165, "architecture_maturity": 16.088, "architecture_confidence": 89.748, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.24, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 14.83, "deceleration": 40.57, "rotation_down": 73.91, "downward_expansion": 92.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.064853, 16.487684, 17.673877, 18.167305 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.6543, "trend_reference": 18.440569, "distance_from_trend": -0.151095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.6817, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.764775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.099974, "excess_performance": -0.225599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021098, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.158265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19585, "relative_activity": 0.306866, "balance": 0.158265, "dry_up": 0.740971, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082082, "annualized_volatility": 0.341059, "from_high_reference": -0.384591, "from_low_reference": 0.029888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.440569, "fair_value_reference": 20.6817, "structural_low": 15.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.001001, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.005269, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.210891, "worst_return": -0.148862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009467, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.009033, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.137409, "worst_return": -0.152081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.063109, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.145485, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144882, "worst_return": -0.131355, "sufficient": true }, 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18.800928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.4888, "volume": 40866, "typical_volume": 71171.55, "trend": 18.603565, "fair_value": 20.797525, "relative_strength": -23.661077, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.465307, "energy": 68.674059, "activity_lines": [ 16.64543, 17.433371, 18.52738, 18.661075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.2258, "volume": 43748, "typical_volume": 69257.6, "trend": 18.555055, "fair_value": 20.76259, "relative_strength": -23.694206, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.410234, "energy": 78.167237, "activity_lines": [ 16.371953, 17.087196, 18.251596, 18.507671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.1242, "volume": 84964, "typical_volume": 65348.95, "trend": 18.499112, "fair_value": 20.720265, "relative_strength": -24.026843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.337602, "energy": 73.896938, "activity_lines": [ 16.275973, 16.801494, 17.977443, 18.350841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.6543, "volume": 19585, "typical_volume": 63822.7, "trend": 18.440569, "fair_value": 20.6817, "relative_strength": -27.764775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.852451, "energy": 71.165016, "activity_lines": [ 16.064853, 16.487684, 17.673877, 18.167305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }