{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8938835-8256-42c7-9677-e643d644deb0", "symbol": "AZOI34", "name": "AutoZone, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.045, "architecture_energy": 53.073, "architecture_maturity": 82.997, "architecture_confidence": 92.963, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 21.62, "upward_expansion": 8.32, "deceleration": 52.59, "rotation_down": 57.93, "downward_expansion": 81.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.752666, 70.713636, 72.616809, 75.160709 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 70.989998, "trend_reference": 78.817, "distance_from_trend": -0.099306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 79.879423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.220736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.200653, "excess_performance": -0.143605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06968, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1101, "relative_activity": 1.052028, "balance": 0.913709, "dry_up": 2.601405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049931, "annualized_volatility": 0.310222, "from_high_reference": -0.334053, "from_low_reference": 0.052171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.817, "fair_value_reference": 79.879423, "structural_low": 67.470001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.016575, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.004681, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.069317, "worst_return": -0.105721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031392, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167406, "worst_return": -0.084949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085409, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030378, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197953, "worst_return": -0.146259, "sufficient": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.57, "volume": 2721, "typical_volume": 1235.35, "trend": 80.230667, "fair_value": 79.595, "relative_strength": -24.988823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.84133, "energy": 53.383257, "activity_lines": [ 71.793333, 72.032, 74.565762, 77.163204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.610001, "volume": 5018, "typical_volume": 1485.6, "trend": 79.582667, "fair_value": 79.685705, "relative_strength": -27.403114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.255224, "energy": 60.058745, "activity_lines": [ 70.192667, 71.136727, 73.66219, 76.348968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.360001, "volume": 2050, "typical_volume": 1008.5, "trend": 79.185333, "fair_value": 79.780256, "relative_strength": -26.27714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.585624, "energy": 56.955715, "activity_lines": [ 69.544, 70.694, 73.021952, 75.689441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.989998, "volume": 1101, "typical_volume": 1046.55, "trend": 78.817, "fair_value": 79.879423, "relative_strength": -21.220736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.045166, "energy": 53.073353, "activity_lines": [ 69.752666, 70.713636, 72.616809, 75.160709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }