{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b89e61ec-d7e1-4623-a960-68b3877df810", "symbol": "000009", "name": "China Baoan Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.094, "architecture_energy": 22.703, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.989, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.09, "rotation_up": 36.17, "upward_expansion": 26.92, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 27.52, "downward_expansion": 65.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.232667, 6.879636, 7.191762, 7.642366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 8.295333, "distance_from_trend": -0.023547, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.438398, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141803, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.029223, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.157128, "excess_performance": -0.164528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023547, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127939, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102382, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434536782, "relative_activity": 3.442293, "balance": 1.102382, "dry_up": 1.92192, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070845, "annualized_volatility": 0.467956, "from_high_reference": -0.366693, "from_low_reference": 0.363636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.295333, "fair_value_reference": 9.438398, "structural_low": 5.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.039506, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.019499, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.42572, "worst_return": -0.184056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.073832, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.010639, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.332591, "worst_return": -0.303634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05216, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.036865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.409471, "worst_return": -0.147128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -35.420919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.747325, "energy": 73.826657, "activity_lines": [ 6.138667, 6.419091, 7.13919, 7.69486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.87, "volume": 289649564, "typical_volume": 111535250.85, "trend": 8.353667, "fair_value": 9.458626, "relative_strength": -14.653107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.87176, "energy": 49.298906, "activity_lines": [ 6.703333, 6.629455, 7.150714, 7.658731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 434536782, "typical_volume": 126234703.15, "trend": 8.295333, "fair_value": 9.438398, "relative_strength": -16.029223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.093628, "energy": 22.703255, "activity_lines": [ 7.232667, 6.879636, 7.191762, 7.642366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }