{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b89eea68-c6d3-483b-8cb7-0f8b842a531b", "symbol": "USAC", "name": "USA Compression Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 81.069, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.947, "architecture_energy": 15.044, "architecture_maturity": 12.366, "architecture_confidence": 68.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.29, "rotation_up": 25.39, "upward_expansion": 19.16, "deceleration": 66.37, "rotation_down": 40.5, "downward_expansion": 35.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.891986, 25.891358, 26.525093, 26.703651 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.82, "trend_reference": 26.639507, "distance_from_trend": -0.030763, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.189419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.434869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000904, "excess_performance": -0.126529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161011, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000904, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790738, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1300677, "relative_activity": 1.246196, "balance": 0.790738, "dry_up": 1.064275, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064609, "annualized_volatility": 0.202372, "from_high_reference": -0.154828, "from_low_reference": 0.230243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.639507, "fair_value_reference": 22.189419, "structural_low": 24.313138, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013868, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.003786, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.194956, "worst_return": -0.140149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025174, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038772, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.181102, "worst_return": -0.062662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083564, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022648, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.171742, "worst_return": -0.098658, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.567503, "volume": 1000676, "typical_volume": 1087181.2, "trend": 26.34176, "fair_value": 21.993497, "relative_strength": -4.849425, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.282926, "energy": 34.792375, "activity_lines": [ 25.721171, 26.225755, 26.840704, 26.804354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.851696, "volume": 845517, "typical_volume": 1082391.8, "trend": 26.470274, "fair_value": 22.059936, "relative_strength": -3.182332, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.650842, "energy": 23.505063, "activity_lines": [ 25.790284, 26.033485, 26.72071, 26.772737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.16, "volume": 1296340, "typical_volume": 1080326.55, "trend": 26.580568, "fair_value": 22.127033, "relative_strength": -3.071401, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.426755, "energy": 18.94728, "activity_lines": [ 25.909385, 25.966695, 26.636857, 26.75272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.82, "volume": 1300677, "typical_volume": 1043717.5, "trend": 26.639507, "fair_value": 22.189419, "relative_strength": -7.434869, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.947381, "energy": 15.044232, "activity_lines": [ 25.891986, 25.891358, 26.525093, 26.703651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }