{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8a503cb-64c7-40c9-a455-f16b2f7e553a", "symbol": "INSTAL", "name": "Instalco AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.991, "architecture_energy": 20.306, "architecture_maturity": 43.306, "architecture_confidence": 90.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.08, "rotation_up": 28.15, "upward_expansion": 54.15, "deceleration": 90.04, "rotation_down": 25.65, "downward_expansion": 17.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.233333, 38.661091, 38.49046, 37.185385 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.779999, "trend_reference": 34.938849, "distance_from_trend": 0.081318, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.145527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.703253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.43219, "excess_performance": 0.370696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081318, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164406, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.107033, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.43219, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2141550, "relative_activity": 1.065531, "balance": 0.790192, "dry_up": 1.226534, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075742, "annualized_volatility": 0.504904, "from_high_reference": -0.103039, "from_low_reference": 0.768397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.938849, "fair_value_reference": 33.145527, "structural_low": 25.016787, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.116067, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.087085, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.235636, "worst_return": -0.198236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.079085, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245061, "worst_return": -0.32988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.194422, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.257784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.08527, "worst_return": -0.272024, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.261168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141908, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079844, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113815, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139207, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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38.149972, 36.446746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.639999, "volume": 1389975, "typical_volume": 1883664.15, "trend": 34.173648, "fair_value": 33.15158, "relative_strength": 17.835884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.047796, "energy": 23.306226, "activity_lines": [ 38.96, 39.180364, 38.35724, 36.763855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.5, "volume": 3306114, "typical_volume": 1979463.15, "trend": 34.572643, "fair_value": 33.143234, "relative_strength": 12.373018, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.926977, "energy": 19.556143, "activity_lines": [ 38.429334, 38.881091, 38.424913, 36.978459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.779999, "volume": 2141550, "typical_volume": 2009843.6, "trend": 34.938849, "fair_value": 33.145527, "relative_strength": 10.703253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.990558, "energy": 20.305943, "activity_lines": [ 38.233333, 38.661091, 38.49046, 37.185385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }