{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8a7f628-acb0-4509-8594-db9c57fba0c0", "symbol": "300958", "name": "BCEG Environmental Remediation Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.278, "architecture_energy": 47.308, "architecture_maturity": 50.144, "architecture_confidence": 85.691, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.9, "rotation_up": 24.85, "upward_expansion": 7.6, "deceleration": 60.11, "rotation_down": 48.49, "downward_expansion": 78.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.060667, 11.102, 11.865143, 12.358043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.25, "trend_reference": 12.887667, "distance_from_trend": -0.127072, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.448713, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.751589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173402, "excess_performance": -0.180802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127072, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046371, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054157, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21150908, "relative_activity": 1.548713, "balance": 0.842426, "dry_up": 1.381146, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082803, "annualized_volatility": 0.315265, "from_high_reference": -0.2495, "from_low_reference": 0.123876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.887667, "fair_value_reference": 13.448713, "structural_low": 10.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011578, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016519, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.264826, "worst_return": -0.264269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006888, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037433, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.223414, "worst_return": -0.270162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013296, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.10232, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.237712, "worst_return": -0.397217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14440807, "typical_volume": 13516140.5, "trend": 13.076333, "fair_value": 13.621206, "relative_strength": -25.248938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.815132, "energy": 85.280936, "activity_lines": [ 11.108667, 11.74, 12.538048, 12.868194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.14, "volume": 17345545, "typical_volume": 13447277.25, "trend": 13.038, "fair_value": 13.581338, "relative_strength": -16.309013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.1618, "energy": 78.483193, "activity_lines": [ 11.081333, 11.509818, 12.355619, 12.743269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.48, "volume": 20588547, "typical_volume": 13536277.7, "trend": 12.966667, "fair_value": 13.536543, "relative_strength": -20.893201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.815115, "energy": 64.829013, "activity_lines": [ 10.876, 11.221818, 12.126238, 12.578237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.23, "volume": 16364684, "typical_volume": 13519814.4, "trend": 12.926333, "fair_value": 13.493895, "relative_strength": -13.318742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.687059, "energy": 53.807362, "activity_lines": [ 10.98, 11.134182, 11.986857, 12.466194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.25, "volume": 21150908, "typical_volume": 13657083.9, "trend": 12.887667, "fair_value": 13.448713, "relative_strength": -16.751589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.278254, "energy": 47.308191, "activity_lines": [ 11.060667, 11.102, 11.865143, 12.358043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }