{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8abedbd-ea71-40f3-8df8-7069a1c64673", "symbol": "SXLC", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Communication Services Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.833, "architecture_energy": 25.603, "architecture_maturity": 9.671, "architecture_confidence": 61.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.73, "rotation_up": 21.32, "upward_expansion": 9.15, "deceleration": 58.48, "rotation_down": 54.52, "downward_expansion": 48.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.291333, 45.455181, 46.154214, 46.161042 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.040001, "trend_reference": 46.049333, "distance_from_trend": -0.000203, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.032436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.125135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023908, "excess_performance": -0.146984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000203, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100022, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.469491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36940, "relative_activity": 1.054376, "balance": 1.469491, "dry_up": 1.615944, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032756, "annualized_volatility": 0.16046, "from_high_reference": -0.059352, "from_low_reference": 0.103415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.049333, "fair_value_reference": 38.032436, "structural_low": 43.139999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045134, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025304, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.080875, "worst_return": 0.003359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029489, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15585, "worst_return": -0.096871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041865, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004247, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260325, "worst_return": -0.176595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023822, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06247, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016012, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"direction": -19.049201, "energy": 28.715184, "activity_lines": [ 45.855999, 46.372453, 46.626713, 46.39501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.645, "volume": 38835, "typical_volume": 30769.6, "trend": 46.089333, "fair_value": 37.680128, "relative_strength": -11.621324, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.027417, "energy": 30.478688, "activity_lines": [ 45.786666, 46.139181, 46.546285, 46.367386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.439999, "volume": 35552, "typical_volume": 31249.1, "trend": 46.0655, "fair_value": 37.791763, "relative_strength": -13.582525, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.78485, "energy": 35.85486, "activity_lines": [ 45.351666, 45.734817, 46.350904, 46.260978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.529999, "volume": 115131, "typical_volume": 35115.7, "trend": 46.0535, "fair_value": 37.907083, "relative_strength": -13.728359, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.714798, "energy": 30.529782, "activity_lines": [ 45.059666, 45.422181, 46.176237, 46.161913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.040001, "volume": 36940, "typical_volume": 35034.95, "trend": 46.049333, "fair_value": 38.032436, "relative_strength": -13.125135, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.833381, "energy": 25.603224, "activity_lines": [ 45.291333, 45.455181, 46.154214, 46.161042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }