{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8b2bff5-2129-4637-90d8-675a04541355", "symbol": "XEON", "name": "Xtrackers II EUR Overnight Rate Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.706, "architecture_energy": 75.617, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.16, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.56, "rotation_up": 79.82, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 59.23, "rotation_down": 17.16, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 149.769544, 149.669469, 149.472785, 149.28206 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 149.844299, "trend_reference": 149.007412, "distance_from_trend": 0.005616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 144.617091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.609362, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009997, "excess_performance": -0.160895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036145, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002221, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009997, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1087699, "relative_activity": 1.581569, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.274005, "accumulation_observations": 8, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000611, "annualized_volatility": 0.000625, "from_high_reference": -0.000493, "from_low_reference": 0.019887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.007412, "fair_value_reference": 144.617091, "structural_low": 148.350006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.002205, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013131, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00332, "worst_return": 0.000931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.007189, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037259, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.010136, "worst_return": 0.004758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013203, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106927, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020075, "worst_return": 0.009657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 148.835916, "fair_value": 144.378471, "relative_strength": -11.845173, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.236807, "energy": 83.681376, "activity_lines": [ 149.590713, 149.489847, 149.297008, 149.108652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.729797, "volume": 726557, "typical_volume": 672414.55, "trend": 148.894015, "fair_value": 144.458034, "relative_strength": -11.301194, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.379905, "energy": 79.69672, "activity_lines": [ 149.650813, 149.549768, 149.35546, 149.166321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.793594, "volume": 953576, "typical_volume": 678034.0, "trend": 148.949935, "fair_value": 144.537645, "relative_strength": -11.473238, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.537033, "energy": 77.284362, "activity_lines": [ 149.712451, 149.610438, 149.414439, 149.224359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 149.844299, "volume": 1087699, "typical_volume": 687734.25, "trend": 149.007412, "fair_value": 144.617091, "relative_strength": -13.609362, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.706353, "energy": 75.617294, "activity_lines": [ 149.769544, 149.669469, 149.472785, 149.28206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }