{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8b307f7-3875-42f8-acea-0a4cb455cd34", "symbol": "EMXU", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Ex China ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.072, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.88, "architecture_energy": 23.128, "architecture_maturity": 64.836, "architecture_confidence": 85.596, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.24, "rotation_up": 23.33, "upward_expansion": 56.0, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 41.77, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.759333, 56.734181, 56.650928, 55.562677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 56.860001, "trend_reference": 54.258333, "distance_from_trend": 0.04795, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.984734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.630319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091782, "excess_performance": 0.027142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04795, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060403, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026303, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091782, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.898859, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141544, "relative_activity": 1.79819, "balance": 0.898859, "dry_up": 1.966666, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048134, "annualized_volatility": 0.239685, "from_high_reference": -0.061251, "from_low_reference": 0.298025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.258333, "fair_value_reference": 44.984734, "structural_low": 47.700001, "invalidation": "A 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"energy": 54.201415, "activity_lines": [ 58.873333, 58.364545, 56.434738, 55.117635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.099998, "volume": 159031, "typical_volume": 61933.0, "trend": 53.599667, "fair_value": 44.731826, "relative_strength": 6.328409, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.664337, "energy": 31.940894, "activity_lines": [ 57.633333, 57.855454, 56.477071, 55.229602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.419998, "volume": 147533, "typical_volume": 67387.75, "trend": 53.851334, "fair_value": 44.810252, "relative_strength": 5.43467, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.577268, "energy": 19.896109, "activity_lines": [ 56.657332, 57.434363, 56.5445, 55.347043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.369999, "volume": 171114, "typical_volume": 73611.9, "trend": 54.036333, "fair_value": 44.888192, "relative_strength": 1.069837, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.221591, "energy": 19.555933, "activity_lines": [ 55.665332, 56.832908, 56.489928, 55.380505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.860001, "volume": 141544, "typical_volume": 78714.7, "trend": 54.258333, "fair_value": 44.984734, "relative_strength": 2.630319, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.880201, "energy": 23.127594, "activity_lines": [ 55.759333, 56.734181, 56.650928, 55.562677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }