{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8b8b779-b5bd-46ea-8efd-878e91df543d", "symbol": "OSWALAGRO", "name": "Oswal Agro Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.837, "architecture_energy": 65.074, "architecture_maturity": 26.753, "architecture_confidence": 87.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.04, "rotation_up": 13.24, "upward_expansion": 13.28, "deceleration": 40.53, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 88.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.138667, 40.187091, 42.330953, 43.39785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.16, "trend_reference": 45.094, "distance_from_trend": -0.109416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.201346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297919, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.171697, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220497, "excess_performance": -0.176788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.297919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025877, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 436450, "relative_activity": 1.815626, "balance": 0.694062, "dry_up": 0.869335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078724, "annualized_volatility": 0.393923, "from_high_reference": -0.518696, "from_low_reference": 0.202395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.094, "fair_value_reference": 57.201346, "structural_low": 33.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.014051, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.03004, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.281973, "worst_return": -0.202992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.014842, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.053742, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.513496, "worst_return": -0.301852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.685567, "worst_return": -0.457712, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", 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"direction": -72.504283, "energy": 66.846604, "activity_lines": [ 41.313334, 42.118364, 43.904524, 44.880108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.419998, "volume": 81568, "typical_volume": 236900.15, "trend": 46.277667, "fair_value": 57.060256, "relative_strength": -30.728865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.339141, "energy": 80.868021, "activity_lines": [ 39.824, 41.108, 43.237381, 44.266108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.25, "volume": 177433, "typical_volume": 232302.95, "trend": 45.590334, "fair_value": 57.131731, "relative_strength": -30.04909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.79314, "energy": 79.672607, "activity_lines": [ 38.991333, 40.414182, 42.684905, 43.748194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.16, "volume": 436450, "typical_volume": 240385.4, "trend": 45.094, "fair_value": 57.201346, "relative_strength": -26.171697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.837277, "energy": 65.074386, "activity_lines": [ 39.138667, 40.187091, 42.330953, 43.39785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }