{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8be4360-9b6a-42b3-8a95-32a338e4c253", "symbol": "2140", "name": "Ayyan Investment Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.531, "architecture_energy": 92.129, "architecture_maturity": 16.287, "architecture_confidence": 77.009, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.03, "rotation_up": 10.74, "upward_expansion": 22.99, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 85.21, "downward_expansion": 96.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.776, 10.239091, 10.528095, 10.651763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.24, "trend_reference": 10.916667, "distance_from_trend": -0.153588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.002616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.46876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224832, "excess_performance": -0.193003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078809, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1352303, "relative_activity": 0.930377, "balance": 0.575332, "dry_up": 1.061064, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048452, "annualized_volatility": 0.254293, "from_high_reference": -0.34375, "from_low_reference": 0.025527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.916667, "fair_value_reference": 15.002616, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.012127, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.005368, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.155779, "worst_return": -0.212598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.035885, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.013758, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.320497, "worst_return": -0.154491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040541, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.024718, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.529496, "worst_return": -0.2325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067746, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.075585, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.004144, "worst_return": -0.246362, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005128, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003257, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 18.5, "volume": 1083677, "typical_volume": 869471.4, "trend": 16.816, "fair_value": 19.009295, "relative_strength": 9.173703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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15.185372, "relative_strength": -7.562208, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.006486, "energy": 19.202815, "activity_lines": [ 10.862, 10.882364, 10.851429, 10.943011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.42, "volume": 782273, "typical_volume": 1330826.8, "trend": 11.145, "fair_value": 15.126911, "relative_strength": -11.008109, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.975835, "energy": 36.37348, "activity_lines": [ 10.709333, 10.797455, 10.815714, 10.89157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.21, "volume": 3270553, "typical_volume": 1406047.0, "trend": 11.022, "fair_value": 15.063385, "relative_strength": -19.334822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.719747, "energy": 83.154827, "activity_lines": [ 10.184, 10.500364, 10.667619, 10.766731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.24, "volume": 1352303, "typical_volume": 1453500.3, "trend": 10.916667, "fair_value": 15.002616, "relative_strength": -20.46876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.531205, "energy": 92.129175, "activity_lines": [ 9.776, 10.239091, 10.528095, 10.651763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }