{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8c1f6a1-6746-46f5-a449-be88a5659880", "symbol": "JFEN3", "name": "Jo\u00e3o Fortes Engenharia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.434, "architecture_energy": 63.739, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.029, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.13, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 11.21, "deceleration": 42.85, "rotation_down": 71.23, "downward_expansion": 86.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.539333, 0.579273, 0.613333, 0.663914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.49, "trend_reference": 0.75, "distance_from_trend": -0.346667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.278974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.9631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.251271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.51, "excess_performance": -0.452952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.346667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.9631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.552513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012549, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.51, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.173127, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 291400, "relative_activity": 5.301073, "balance": 0.173127, "dry_up": 2.127524, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196232, "annualized_volatility": 0.476174, "from_high_reference": -0.747423, "from_low_reference": 0.065217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.75, "fair_value_reference": 13.278974, "structural_low": 0.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 56, "median_return": -0.080214, "positive_rate": 0.267857, "directional_follow_through": 0.732143, "median_excess_return": -0.090573, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.444898, "worst_return": -0.725191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.052632, "directional_follow_through": 0.947368, "median_excess_return": -0.206064, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.144068, "worst_return": -0.777778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.373913, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.388954, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": -0.180723, "worst_return": -0.836601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 0.54, "volume": 111000, "typical_volume": 43165.0, "trend": 0.780333, "fair_value": 14.124936, "relative_strength": -53.51469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.204435, "energy": 46.760183, "activity_lines": [ 0.603333, 0.613818, 0.643429, 0.697247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.54, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 42520.0, "trend": 0.766333, "fair_value": 13.693782, "relative_strength": -53.373207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.038771, "energy": 52.280486, "activity_lines": [ 0.575333, 0.6, 0.630095, 0.681742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 291400, "typical_volume": 54970.0, "trend": 0.75, "fair_value": 13.278974, "relative_strength": -55.251271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.433787, "energy": 63.738502, "activity_lines": [ 0.539333, 0.579273, 0.613333, 0.663914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }