{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8c5efc5-63dc-4ab6-b3f3-d666a0d6f4f2", "symbol": "ACNT", "name": "Synalloy Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.187, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.361, "architecture_energy": 46.412, "architecture_maturity": 10.614, "architecture_confidence": 50.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.35, "rotation_up": 63.08, "upward_expansion": 58.46, "deceleration": 23.91, "rotation_down": 19.84, "downward_expansion": 16.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.409667, 15.097273, 14.649238, 14.538344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.61, "trend_reference": 14.758833, "distance_from_trend": 0.057672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.752592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328218, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.068633, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.092442, "excess_performance": -0.279895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12254, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.01484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 466852, "relative_activity": 1.175745, "balance": 1.01484, "dry_up": 0.64041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068131, "annualized_volatility": 0.449724, "from_high_reference": -0.128892, "from_low_reference": 0.343142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.758833, "fair_value_reference": 11.752592, "structural_low": 12.09, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.076025, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059434, "worst_return": -0.092617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.150386, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013208, "worst_return": -0.287565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.191627, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.307257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049057, "worst_return": -0.334197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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523450.8, "trend": 14.848, "fair_value": 11.549835, "relative_strength": -5.32376, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.379239, "energy": 6.236326, "activity_lines": [ 14.362, 14.158182, 14.020571, 14.366387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.26, "volume": 182453, "typical_volume": 523107.0, "trend": 14.838, "fair_value": 11.591246, "relative_strength": -6.828266, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.396781, "energy": 12.73289, "activity_lines": [ 14.734, 14.365455, 14.130286, 14.392968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.29, "volume": 131211, "typical_volume": 521994.5, "trend": 14.825667, "fair_value": 11.633329, "relative_strength": -2.510941, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.049897, "energy": 32.705746, "activity_lines": [ 15.002, 14.568727, 14.253, 14.422129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.125, "volume": 185145, "typical_volume": 464335.25, "trend": 14.798833, "fair_value": 11.673233, "relative_strength": -1.926463, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.53913, "energy": 37.451401, "activity_lines": [ 15.132333, 14.715636, 14.368905, 14.441441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.47, "volume": 233940, "typical_volume": 413766.95, "trend": 14.779167, "fair_value": 11.712271, "relative_strength": -0.198854, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.620459, "energy": 45.428112, "activity_lines": [ 15.3, 14.903, 14.508786, 14.484742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.61, "volume": 466852, "typical_volume": 397069.15, "trend": 14.758833, "fair_value": 11.752592, "relative_strength": -4.068633, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.361026, "energy": 46.412151, "activity_lines": [ 15.409667, 15.097273, 14.649238, 14.538344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }