{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8c7ab29-19d2-49ad-9bb4-f2d68c78dcb3", "symbol": "CANTA", "name": "Cantargia AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.487, "architecture_energy": 77.616, "architecture_maturity": 63.703, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.15, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 41.06, "rotation_down": 56.14, "downward_expansion": 90.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.857933, 1.948255, 2.335162, 2.789428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.879, "trend_reference": 3.482933, "distance_from_trend": -0.460512, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.114737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.843299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.645472, "excess_performance": -0.706966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.460512, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157423, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.508433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.484632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.645472, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23739, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3077861, "relative_activity": 0.584515, "balance": 0.23739, "dry_up": 0.527195, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146764, "annualized_volatility": 0.562869, "from_high_reference": -0.714871, "from_low_reference": 0.082997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.482933, "fair_value_reference": 3.114737, "structural_low": 1.735, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.031158, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.06261, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 1.801993, "worst_return": -0.553571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.078005, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.063862, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.700637, "worst_return": -0.497953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133704, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.218126, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.544586, "worst_return": -0.599534, "sufficient": true 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"direction": -75.264102, "energy": 76.734623, "activity_lines": [ 2.107733, 2.242218, 2.799076, 3.268282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.838, "volume": 2632208, "typical_volume": 6002314.8, "trend": 3.7379, "fair_value": 3.17634, "relative_strength": -50.98143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.948476, "energy": 78.064255, "activity_lines": [ 2.0108, 2.125564, 2.664081, 3.140768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.84, "volume": 3347408, "typical_volume": 5731987.7, "trend": 3.662733, "fair_value": 3.154128, "relative_strength": -51.25573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.420735, "energy": 78.220728, "activity_lines": [ 1.936, 2.039127, 2.543071, 3.018323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.822, "volume": 2046654, "typical_volume": 5551493.15, "trend": 3.586133, "fair_value": 3.133846, "relative_strength": -51.874271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.587298, "energy": 79.757497, "activity_lines": [ 1.876667, 1.978327, 2.431086, 2.899566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.879, "volume": 3077861, "typical_volume": 5265667.35, "trend": 3.482933, "fair_value": 3.114737, "relative_strength": -50.843299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.487047, "energy": 77.615538, "activity_lines": [ 1.857933, 1.948255, 2.335162, 2.789428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }