{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8ca96cc-13fc-469f-9ab2-e9aa6187104c", "symbol": "4554", "name": "Orange Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.647, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.644, "architecture_energy": 23.311, "architecture_maturity": 30.423, "architecture_confidence": 76.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.27, "rotation_up": 34.33, "upward_expansion": 58.09, "deceleration": 88.55, "rotation_down": 22.11, "downward_expansion": 12.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.99, 30.991818, 30.787143, 30.256022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.9, "trend_reference": 29.415, "distance_from_trend": 0.084481, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.324032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16747, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.192827, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.188082, "excess_performance": -0.25329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084481, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038079, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.83536, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331384, "relative_activity": 0.908358, "balance": 1.83536, "dry_up": 0.539884, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055823, "annualized_volatility": 0.252721, "from_high_reference": -0.078035, "from_low_reference": 0.304703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.415, "fair_value_reference": 27.324032, "structural_low": 24.450001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004668, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002454, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.187809, "worst_return": -0.050435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021673, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031437, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.237062, "worst_return": -0.100826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020625, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.084028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.220758, "worst_return": -0.188811, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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46.583237, "activity_lines": [ 31.106667, 30.841818, 30.221667, 29.511828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 226319, "typical_volume": 394206.25, "trend": 28.806667, "fair_value": 27.053857, "relative_strength": -30.005167, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.602153, "energy": 48.821179, "activity_lines": [ 31.246667, 30.940909, 30.394762, 29.673549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.549999, "volume": 408967, "typical_volume": 408783.1, "trend": 28.921667, "fair_value": 27.10483, "relative_strength": -26.006089, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.747533, "energy": 37.591265, "activity_lines": [ 31.116667, 30.898182, 30.48381, 29.786022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.0, "volume": 194100, "typical_volume": 412633.2, "trend": 29.045, "fair_value": 27.158165, "relative_strength": -25.282668, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.687843, "energy": 33.651834, "activity_lines": [ 31.093333, 30.935455, 30.598333, 29.920108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.200001, "volume": 168562, "typical_volume": 412678.85, "trend": 29.143333, "fair_value": 27.208986, "relative_strength": -25.059899, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.273153, "energy": 18.41622, "activity_lines": [ 30.746667, 30.811818, 30.613572, 29.994624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.549999, "volume": 93789, "typical_volume": 360319.3, "trend": 29.255, "fair_value": 27.263359, "relative_strength": -24.78063, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.20471, "energy": 15.006848, "activity_lines": [ 30.59, 30.780909, 30.639524, 30.085376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.9, "volume": 331384, "typical_volume": 364816.5, "trend": 29.415, "fair_value": 27.324032, "relative_strength": -23.192827, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.644156, "energy": 23.311398, "activity_lines": [ 30.99, 30.991818, 30.787143, 30.256022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }