{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8cd552c-1180-4e6b-99df-bdcc67cffe54", "symbol": "00657", "name": "Cathay Nikkei 225 Currency-hedged ETF Fund", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.104, "architecture_energy": 25.876, "architecture_maturity": 66.643, "architecture_confidence": 75.822, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.05, "rotation_up": 22.98, "upward_expansion": 56.78, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 31.76, "downward_expansion": 20.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.59, 77.771818, 76.614524, 74.151398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 77.650002, "trend_reference": 70.878333, "distance_from_trend": 0.095539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.543782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.536292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.078014, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230586, "excess_performance": -0.148725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099002, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.536292, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021881, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 817264, "relative_activity": 1.463995, "balance": 1.194059, "dry_up": 1.586373, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046709, "annualized_volatility": 0.256069, "from_high_reference": -0.065021, "from_low_reference": 0.662741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.878333, "fair_value_reference": 50.543782, "structural_low": 59.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013657, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034244, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119163, "worst_return": -0.027355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001309, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.102911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.308374, "worst_return": -0.003575, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052084, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114891, "worst_return": -0.010724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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69.73, "fair_value": 50.050641, "relative_strength": -11.645727, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.418859, "energy": 34.60488, "activity_lines": [ 77.22, 78.268182, 75.879286, 73.258495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.199997, "volume": 889030, "typical_volume": 550191.0, "trend": 70.28, "fair_value": 50.293141, "relative_strength": -9.74515, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.558991, "energy": 26.518639, "activity_lines": [ 76.513333, 77.905454, 76.208809, 73.675914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.650002, "volume": 817264, "typical_volume": 558242.45, "trend": 70.878333, "fair_value": 50.543782, "relative_strength": -10.078014, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.104032, "energy": 25.876352, "activity_lines": [ 76.59, 77.771818, 76.614524, 74.151398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }