{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8d69213-b898-4af6-8acf-def32ff85bce", "symbol": "STEM", "name": "Stem Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.376, "architecture_energy": 81.76, "architecture_maturity": 68.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.328, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 13.46, "upward_expansion": 20.18, "deceleration": 37.38, "rotation_down": 70.63, "downward_expansion": 93.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.796667, 6.410364, 7.488143, 8.316774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.88, "trend_reference": 9.943667, "distance_from_trend": -0.408669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.664026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.770886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.14481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.538824, "excess_performance": -0.664448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.408669, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.770886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.611448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.538824, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532365, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 517170, "relative_activity": 0.783844, "balance": 0.532365, "dry_up": 0.86543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213244, "annualized_volatility": 0.719784, "from_high_reference": -0.817561, "from_low_reference": 0.195122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.943667, "fair_value_reference": 25.664026, "structural_low": 4.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.137124, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.135106, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 2.132221, "worst_return": -0.543496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.165598, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.196603, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.804285, "worst_return": -0.60045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.172792, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.252163, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.867116, "worst_return": -0.76027, "sufficient": true }, 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"relative_strength": -62.955253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.68925, "energy": 71.032757, "activity_lines": [ 6.428667, 7.061273, 8.048905, 8.947699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.4, "volume": 693964, "typical_volume": 661707.65, "trend": 10.337, "fair_value": 26.462231, "relative_strength": -63.514732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.783911, "energy": 81.522026, "activity_lines": [ 5.967333, 6.655273, 7.733619, 8.604323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.88, "volume": 517170, "typical_volume": 659786.7, "trend": 9.943667, "fair_value": 25.664026, "relative_strength": -61.14481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.37583, "energy": 81.759527, "activity_lines": [ 5.796667, 6.410364, 7.488143, 8.316774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }