{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8d728c8-7205-4651-98bc-5910243b1682", "symbol": "CNO", "name": "CNO Financial Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.204, "architecture_energy": 69.416, "architecture_maturity": 59.36, "architecture_confidence": 86.247, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 72.84, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 60.25, "rotation_down": 19.61, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.332667, 53.333034, 50.689819, 48.466984 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 55.16, "trend_reference": 45.919195, "distance_from_trend": 0.201241, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.195616, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.567241, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.652092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.245336, "excess_performance": 0.119711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.201241, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.567241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.136521, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113963, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.245336, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.840509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3270526, "relative_activity": 0.910292, "balance": 2.840509, "dry_up": 0.964359, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042051, "annualized_volatility": 0.178159, "from_high_reference": -0.042195, "from_low_reference": 0.528494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.919195, "fair_value_reference": 35.195616, "structural_low": 38.849101, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008947, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.00481, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.146628, "worst_return": -0.169451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.10139, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.043514, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.238848, "worst_return": -0.143649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084611, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017903, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.419529, "worst_return": -0.061594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 51.94, 50.400227, 47.658846, 46.056728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.59, "volume": 3910748, "typical_volume": 3588684.6, "trend": 44.732824, "fair_value": 34.601869, "relative_strength": 16.450014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.032027, "energy": 89.401934, "activity_lines": [ 52.596667, 51.211784, 48.442189, 46.650478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.23, "volume": 2668781, "typical_volume": 3576224.1, "trend": 45.075365, "fair_value": 34.78854, "relative_strength": 15.882787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.603405, "energy": 70.081809, "activity_lines": [ 52.918, 51.817227, 49.133604, 47.198683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.09, "volume": 4009071, "typical_volume": 3637411.55, "trend": 45.515958, "fair_value": 34.991854, "relative_strength": 18.012354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.207157, "energy": 70.824982, "activity_lines": [ 53.699333, 52.641229, 49.944959, 47.844788 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.16, "volume": 3270526, "typical_volume": 3592833.15, "trend": 45.919195, "fair_value": 35.195616, "relative_strength": 13.652092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.204192, "energy": 69.416488, "activity_lines": [ 54.332667, 53.333034, 50.689819, 48.466984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }