{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8db2a4d-fb3f-48c0-a8f8-075a4bae8361", "symbol": "002182", "name": "Baowu Magnesium Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.934, "architecture_energy": 72.244, "architecture_maturity": 29.567, "architecture_confidence": 90.686, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 12.92, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 39.16, "rotation_down": 69.51, "downward_expansion": 89.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.869333, 12.463818, 13.476857, 14.463333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.7, "trend_reference": 15.768333, "distance_from_trend": -0.194588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.158081, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.924128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320856, "excess_performance": -0.328255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028306, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.38008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127103866, "relative_activity": 1.252433, "balance": 0.38008, "dry_up": 1.105339, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123683, "annualized_volatility": 0.586877, "from_high_reference": -0.451167, "from_low_reference": 0.198113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.768333, "fair_value_reference": 13.158081, "structural_low": 10.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.03052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012306, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.288341, "worst_return": -0.180867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.076789, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.088889, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.38684, "worst_return": -0.118009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018042, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.086314, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.444693, "worst_return": -0.26575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.880667, 13.368727, 14.365286, 15.276968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.96, "volume": 103530345, "typical_volume": 104704642.5, "trend": 15.980333, "fair_value": 13.192412, "relative_strength": -27.947102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.565557, "energy": 64.303218, "activity_lines": [ 12.118667, 12.843091, 13.951286, 14.946903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.64, "volume": 87980996, "typical_volume": 102217052.45, "trend": 15.855, "fair_value": 13.17126, "relative_strength": -21.968764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.308782, "energy": 80.05366, "activity_lines": [ 11.759333, 12.524182, 13.645381, 14.666882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.7, "volume": 127103866, "typical_volume": 101485583.3, "trend": 15.768333, "fair_value": 13.158081, "relative_strength": -18.924128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.933874, "energy": 72.243509, "activity_lines": [ 11.869333, 12.463818, 13.476857, 14.463333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }