{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8dba17d-e19f-4d38-ac4f-0b5ceda02f48", "symbol": "NOWW", "name": "ServiceNow, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.221, "architecture_energy": 37.91, "architecture_maturity": 28.314, "architecture_confidence": 52.148, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.29, "rotation_up": 55.55, "upward_expansion": 49.42, "deceleration": 27.35, "rotation_down": 23.47, "downward_expansion": 21.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 1937.652002, 1878.471456, 1824.18743, 1819.994239 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2134.75, "trend_reference": 1849.987671, "distance_from_trend": 0.153927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2867.979689, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.255661, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.622059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.237536, "excess_performance": 0.292203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.255661, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200609, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.374991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.1788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15029, "relative_activity": 0.442401, "balance": 4.1788, "dry_up": 0.909845, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108346, "annualized_volatility": 0.721426, "from_high_reference": -0.400957, "from_low_reference": 0.511863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1849.987671, "fair_value_reference": 2867.979689, "structural_low": 1412.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043092, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155137, "worst_return": -0.113079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192851, "worst_return": -0.053574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.072307, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.395579, "worst_return": -0.250966, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059502, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.604198, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096946, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.26659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.446513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292566, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1837.906006, "volume": 2060, "typical_volume": 3631.75, "trend": 1782.817997, "fair_value": 2036.549841, "relative_strength": 6.475278, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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1719.0, "volume": 15906, "typical_volume": 29673.35, "trend": 1887.979004, "fair_value": 2866.574177, "relative_strength": -32.617779, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.370615, "energy": 14.468677, "activity_lines": [ 1803.505998, 1809.823635, 1774.148715, 1800.104884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1925.51001, "volume": 87510, "typical_volume": 33540.85, "trend": 1863.996004, "fair_value": 2866.531292, "relative_strength": -23.929978, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.356776, "energy": 5.753682, "activity_lines": [ 1842.435335, 1826.666728, 1788.929287, 1802.526239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2134.75, "volume": 15029, "typical_volume": 33971.45, "trend": 1849.987671, "fair_value": 2867.979689, "relative_strength": -14.622059, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.220846, "energy": 37.91005, "activity_lines": [ 1937.652002, 1878.471456, 1824.18743, 1819.994239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }