{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8e5e4d2-c7e6-4754-acb4-c5e5c6e33fa6", "symbol": "WTI3S", "name": "SG ETC DAILY SHORT -3X WTI OIL FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.999, "architecture_energy": 64.949, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.454, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.86, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 53.68, "downward_expansion": 77.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.032013, 0.040289, 0.039917, 0.133541 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0333, "trend_reference": 0.408837, "distance_from_trend": -0.918549, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.914401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988574, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -97.655838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.977624, "excess_performance": -1.148516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.918549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.644439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988574, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002161, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.976558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.977624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.540271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5724204, "relative_activity": 0.443466, "balance": 1.540271, "dry_up": 0.747363, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.334257, "annualized_volatility": 3.368762, "from_high_reference": -0.987434, "from_low_reference": 0.48 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.408837, "fair_value_reference": 2.914401, "structural_low": 0.0225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.018928, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.007161, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 1.056962, "worst_return": -0.95541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049344, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.050021, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.501394, "worst_return": -0.983606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.13554, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.098591, "worst_return": -0.30588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 12855263, "typical_volume": 12724966.7, "trend": 0.554277, "fair_value": 2.983903, "relative_strength": -98.21524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.383614, "energy": 73.134037, "activity_lines": [ 0.042767, 0.045113, 0.042424, 0.19614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0265, "volume": 12986075, "typical_volume": 13136098.5, "trend": 0.47581, "fair_value": 2.948431, "relative_strength": -98.146454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.616232, "energy": 70.765374, "activity_lines": [ 0.034967, 0.042078, 0.040743, 0.16209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0333, "volume": 5724204, "typical_volume": 12907877.9, "trend": 0.408837, "fair_value": 2.914401, "relative_strength": -97.655838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.999457, "energy": 64.948998, "activity_lines": [ 0.032013, 0.040289, 0.039917, 0.133541 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }