{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8e6dacc-d413-4d2b-aa1f-476e3b680f4e", "symbol": "JUBLPHARMA", "name": "Jubilant Pharmova Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.704, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.422, "architecture_energy": 7.337, "architecture_maturity": 33.134, "architecture_confidence": 62.62, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.45, "rotation_up": 22.01, "upward_expansion": 47.38, "deceleration": 80.78, "rotation_down": 28.79, "downward_expansion": 27.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 952.703361, 960.106879, 963.625675, 946.987968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 932.0, "trend_reference": 935.60271, "distance_from_trend": -0.003851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 873.759031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.954795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006026, "excess_performance": 0.037683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041196, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064231, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006026, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705488, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 653217, "relative_activity": 1.171199, "balance": 0.705488, "dry_up": 1.338822, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047549, "annualized_volatility": 0.242022, "from_high_reference": -0.213369, "from_low_reference": 0.185675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 935.60271, "fair_value_reference": 873.759031, "structural_low": 786.049988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00972, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.009016, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.266241, "worst_return": -0.113037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063713, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.078387, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.500507, "worst_return": -0.149538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.319861, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.227671, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.147654, "worst_return": -0.194321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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962.306599, 946.935481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 965.349976, "volume": 389771, "typical_volume": 575430.05, "trend": 944.017708, "fair_value": 866.981315, "relative_strength": -0.061528, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.992738, "energy": 27.695711, "activity_lines": [ 977.442277, 974.917104, 965.375733, 948.07681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 935.150024, "volume": 643443, "typical_volume": 553983.4, "trend": 940.009375, "fair_value": 870.621077, "relative_strength": -5.239572, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.462683, "energy": 14.738038, "activity_lines": [ 964.788391, 967.151085, 964.867253, 947.504702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 932.0, "volume": 653217, "typical_volume": 557733.35, "trend": 935.60271, "fair_value": 873.759031, "relative_strength": -5.954795, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.422462, "energy": 7.336851, "activity_lines": [ 952.703361, 960.106879, 963.625675, 946.987968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }