{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b8ea3bc3-86c0-44a4-a8ff-489ed5795d89",
    "symbol": "AWSRIE",
    "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 94.652,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 67.548,
    "architecture_energy": 49.138,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.386,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.891,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 19.36,
        "rotation_up": 44.47,
        "upward_expansion": 69.8,
        "deceleration": 85.48,
        "rotation_down": 27.74,
        "downward_expansion": 19.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        22.282667,
        22.303727,
        21.965857,
        21.43325
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 22.76,
    "trend_reference": 20.8363,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.092324,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 17.393712,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308519,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.357738,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.148219,
    "excess_performance": -0.022673,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092324,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050522,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.308519,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025437,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023577,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018832,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.148219,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.639264,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10973,
      "relative_activity": 0.327823,
      "balance": 1.639264,
      "dry_up": 0.977546,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022442,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.149376,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000659,
      "from_low_reference": 0.274356
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 20.8363,
      "fair_value_reference": 17.393712,
      "structural_low": 18.302,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.021143,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009336,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.096324,
        "worst_return": -0.050794,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.057716,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002015,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.126307,
        "worst_return": -0.11719,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.125088,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009292,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.142537,
        "worst_return": -0.004275,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.033488,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056964,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.273693,
        "worst_return": -0.19621,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.084869,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.043352,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001466,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030843,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002306,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.149487,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.039137,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.047657,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012906,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.046982,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004357,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.058227,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 100145.75,
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 98931,
        "typical_volume": 39328.15,
        "trend": 20.5786,
        "fair_value": 17.232795,
        "relative_strength": -2.197871,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 64.674268,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.384334,
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          21.632595,
          21.130592
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.014999,
        "volume": 7791,
        "typical_volume": 38345.7,
        "trend": 20.662634,
        "fair_value": 17.283327,
        "relative_strength": -2.183819,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.612073,
        "energy": 60.100308,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.251667,
          22.244364,
          21.736067,
          21.223263
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 21.9,
        "volume": 13188,
        "typical_volume": 35947.0,
        "trend": 20.742567,
        "fair_value": 17.334994,
        "relative_strength": -3.299095,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.895177,
        "energy": 44.151639,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.114333,
          22.198545,
          21.816791,
          21.303093
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 22.76,
        "volume": 10973,
        "typical_volume": 33472.35,
        "trend": 20.8363,
        "fair_value": 17.393712,
        "relative_strength": -2.357738,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.547801,
        "energy": 49.137617,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.282667,
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          21.43325
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}