{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8f043c8-b0a4-490b-add7-0d946742eba1", "symbol": "LIV", "name": "Livermore Investments Group Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.286, "architecture_energy": 45.13, "architecture_maturity": 60.366, "architecture_confidence": 94.34, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.57, "rotation_up": 21.1, "upward_expansion": 6.34, "deceleration": 57.27, "rotation_down": 54.85, "downward_expansion": 79.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.372267, 0.3792, 0.400143, 0.418819 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.374, "trend_reference": 0.44915, "distance_from_trend": -0.167316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.421025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.399119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297653, "excess_performance": -0.348888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082494, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7566, "relative_activity": 0.452867, "balance": 0.366345, "dry_up": 0.487254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107158, "annualized_volatility": 0.371537, "from_high_reference": -0.386885, "from_low_reference": 0.068571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.44915, "fair_value_reference": 0.421025, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.021858, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.010023, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.217616, "worst_return": -0.181208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051947, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060936, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.417584, "worst_return": -0.149532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068279, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205609, "worst_return": -0.082903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.376267, 0.397345, 0.414524, 0.435823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.376, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 20511.8, "trend": 0.46045, "fair_value": 0.419829, "relative_strength": -27.487457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.85667, "energy": 70.136522, "activity_lines": [ 0.374267, 0.3908, 0.409571, 0.430048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.367, "volume": 5880, "typical_volume": 20701.55, "trend": 0.4546, "fair_value": 0.420497, "relative_strength": -29.309989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.6074, "energy": 56.560582, "activity_lines": [ 0.371533, 0.383618, 0.404262, 0.424019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.374, "volume": 7566, "typical_volume": 16706.9, "trend": 0.44915, "fair_value": 0.421025, "relative_strength": -27.399119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.286222, "energy": 45.129781, "activity_lines": [ 0.372267, 0.3792, 0.400143, 0.418819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }