{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8f0e3ea-88b5-4585-8804-1381d8686ef4", "symbol": "ZIQ", "name": "BMO MSCI EAFE High Quality Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.737, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.728, "architecture_energy": 54.923, "architecture_maturity": 65.601, "architecture_confidence": 48.163, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.86, "rotation_up": 48.33, "upward_expansion": 75.56, "deceleration": 70.91, "rotation_down": 28.46, "downward_expansion": 13.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.409333, 36.348385, 35.694614, 35.118764 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.029999, "trend_reference": 34.60197, "distance_from_trend": 0.07017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.631259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134801, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.429483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078384, "excess_performance": -0.042037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134801, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05128, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078384, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6500, "relative_activity": 0.724234, "balance": 0.509294, "dry_up": 1.300836, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020981, "annualized_volatility": 0.1801, "from_high_reference": -0.015421, "from_low_reference": 0.198668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.60197, "fair_value_reference": 32.631259, "structural_low": 30.892629, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015734, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.072361, "worst_return": -0.017265, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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35.010472, 34.636851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.830002, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 10615.0, "trend": 34.335254, "fair_value": 32.504784, "relative_strength": -4.226705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.950006, "energy": 78.349731, "activity_lines": [ 36.36439, 36.020517, 35.155129, 34.737382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.689999, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 9340.0, "trend": 34.393733, "fair_value": 32.540176, "relative_strength": -4.611724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.636684, "energy": 54.000234, "activity_lines": [ 36.122134, 36.035382, 35.284092, 34.824785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.43, "volume": 24800, "typical_volume": 9360.0, "trend": 34.509596, "fair_value": 32.582921, "relative_strength": -2.069984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.198029, "energy": 48.594714, "activity_lines": [ 36.17, 36.151906, 35.470267, 34.956157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.029999, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 8975.0, "trend": 34.60197, "fair_value": 32.631259, "relative_strength": -3.429483, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.727624, "energy": 54.922737, "activity_lines": [ 36.409333, 36.348385, 35.694614, 35.118764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }