{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8f1b57c-5f9c-402d-aefa-1e50fde5b8c3", "symbol": "7204", "name": "Perfect Presentation for Commercial Services Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.963, "architecture_energy": 52.736, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.376, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.32, "rotation_up": 17.04, "upward_expansion": 9.48, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 59.75, "downward_expansion": 82.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.228667, 6.317455, 6.485429, 6.612731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.45, "trend_reference": 6.828667, "distance_from_trend": -0.055453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.683397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.447935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.011074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.127199, "excess_performance": -0.095369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094381, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.447935, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043884, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127199, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.531922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2844586, "relative_activity": 1.062892, "balance": 0.531922, "dry_up": 0.754492, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059153, "annualized_volatility": 0.263754, "from_high_reference": -0.426667, "from_low_reference": 0.084034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.828667, "fair_value_reference": 11.683397, "structural_low": 5.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.039701, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.03407, "regime_survival": 0.954545, "best_return": 0.068702, "worst_return": -0.119624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.098827, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.088424, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.028226, "worst_return": -0.238981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.197581, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.157784, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.144891, "worst_return": -0.313418, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2592405.65, "trend": 7.062333, "fair_value": 11.815833, "relative_strength": -23.178361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.581233, "energy": 39.996141, "activity_lines": [ 6.478, 6.520727, 6.678619, 6.810172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.18, "volume": 1547313, "typical_volume": 2573836.1, "trend": 6.999333, "fair_value": 11.782628, "relative_strength": -23.186285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.773283, "energy": 52.568914, "activity_lines": [ 6.364, 6.444909, 6.624429, 6.753247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.16, "volume": 1941923, "typical_volume": 2568395.6, "trend": 6.931667, "fair_value": 11.748526, "relative_strength": -23.134127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.912334, "energy": 66.364815, "activity_lines": [ 6.269333, 6.382545, 6.571333, 6.699097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.01, "volume": 1743078, "typical_volume": 2558871.2, "trend": 6.867, "fair_value": 11.712692, "relative_strength": -22.666277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.977743, "energy": 74.980548, "activity_lines": [ 6.16, 6.306545, 6.506143, 6.639634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.45, "volume": 2844586, "typical_volume": 2676271.0, "trend": 6.828667, "fair_value": 11.683397, "relative_strength": -18.011074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.962571, "energy": 52.736006, "activity_lines": [ 6.228667, 6.317455, 6.485429, 6.612731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }