{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8f3954d-1eda-4e5f-a229-dcd2c1154932", "symbol": "300196", "name": "Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.94, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.957, "architecture_energy": 37.868, "architecture_maturity": 10.439, "architecture_confidence": 49.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.68, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 17.36, "deceleration": 63.9, "rotation_down": 68.79, "downward_expansion": 44.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.183334, 20.247637, 21.318541, 20.747572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.360001, "trend_reference": 19.693839, "distance_from_trend": -0.067729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.050906, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.406799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.711655, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129634, "excess_performance": 0.122234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.406799, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027117, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143086, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129634, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.735135, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109062171, "relative_activity": 1.058437, "balance": 1.735135, "dry_up": 0.971825, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229283, "annualized_volatility": 0.844801, "from_high_reference": -0.464098, "from_low_reference": 0.42107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.693839, "fair_value_reference": 13.050906, "structural_low": 14.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039957, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.033598, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135302, "worst_return": -0.097819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031779, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.419898, "worst_return": -0.076635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.106185, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.877097, "worst_return": -0.094201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.252264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095366, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065106, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095162, "active": false }, { 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27.784667, 25.852205, 23.01301, 21.331889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.610001, "volume": 120164342, "typical_volume": 106539905.45, "trend": 19.305285, "fair_value": 12.958982, "relative_strength": 9.361882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.776132, "energy": 44.808102, "activity_lines": [ 25.568667, 25.214808, 22.953911, 21.431482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.1, "volume": 99356013, "typical_volume": 100990942.95, "trend": 19.434135, "fair_value": 12.984447, "relative_strength": -0.292254, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.726918, "energy": 12.294556, "activity_lines": [ 22.413334, 23.914, 22.550454, 21.289205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.86, "volume": 90719656, "typical_volume": 100181699.4, "trend": 19.512148, "fair_value": 13.002511, "relative_strength": -7.809858, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.73016, "energy": 33.92186, "activity_lines": [ 19.386667, 22.466909, 22.045283, 21.058616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.89, "volume": 101412386, "typical_volume": 100676122.15, "trend": 19.559041, "fair_value": 13.019916, "relative_strength": -6.244786, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.530893, "energy": 41.521766, "activity_lines": [ 17.303333, 21.096, 21.556686, 20.824929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.360001, "volume": 109062171, "typical_volume": 103040748.15, "trend": 19.693839, "fair_value": 13.050906, "relative_strength": 2.711655, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.956537, "energy": 37.86844, "activity_lines": [ 17.183334, 20.247637, 21.318541, 20.747572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }