{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8fa1e72-2711-4d90-8421-68a2afcae102", "symbol": "002697", "name": "Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.63, "architecture_energy": 24.937, "architecture_maturity": 97.501, "architecture_confidence": 73.241, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.66, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 20.84, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 25.69, "downward_expansion": 57.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.571333, 4.503818, 4.619, 4.809523 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.57, "trend_reference": 5.113331, "distance_from_trend": -0.106258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.093458, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.779248, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.209253, "excess_performance": -0.216653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075684, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102771, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093606, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209253, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.926058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74900051, "relative_activity": 1.045928, "balance": 0.926058, "dry_up": 1.234855, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062525, "annualized_volatility": 0.247706, "from_high_reference": -0.380197, "from_low_reference": 0.103865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.113331, "fair_value_reference": 5.093458, "structural_low": 4.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.012578, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.015121, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.244706, "worst_return": -0.088409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038726, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.041561, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.273148, "worst_return": -0.108595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.194023, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.12973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215278, "worst_return": 0.051383, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.78076, "energy": 59.043216, "activity_lines": [ 4.441333, 4.492196, 4.703804, 4.934896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.42, "volume": 84473546, "typical_volume": 75565256.55, "trend": 5.199726, "fair_value": 5.106372, "relative_strength": -18.900127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.403588, "energy": 50.663121, "activity_lines": [ 4.45, 4.465719, 4.656865, 4.879481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 95671289, "typical_volume": 74149546.85, "trend": 5.15462, "fair_value": 5.101591, "relative_strength": -11.8641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.170097, "energy": 31.796829, "activity_lines": [ 4.550667, 4.496909, 4.642135, 4.84724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.57, "volume": 74900051, "typical_volume": 71611125.75, "trend": 5.113331, "fair_value": 5.093458, "relative_strength": -17.779248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.629732, "energy": 24.937217, "activity_lines": [ 4.571333, 4.503818, 4.619, 4.809523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }