{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8fef79c-7745-4eb4-859b-6a2f8bfa2ecb", "symbol": "ORN", "name": "Orion Group Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.941, "architecture_energy": 52.83, "architecture_maturity": 18.299, "architecture_confidence": 86.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.34, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 23.07, "deceleration": 53.47, "rotation_down": 71.26, "downward_expansion": 50.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.204667, 12.629636, 13.304381, 13.141484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.31, "trend_reference": 12.948, "distance_from_trend": -0.203738, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.444487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.947258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270347, "excess_performance": -0.395972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095648, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.752126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179473, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58048, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3001455, "relative_activity": 1.394367, "balance": 0.58048, "dry_up": 1.692235, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188577, "annualized_volatility": 0.611928, "from_high_reference": -0.407471, "from_low_reference": 0.600932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.948, "fair_value_reference": 8.444487, "structural_low": 8.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048599, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.067904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17027, "worst_return": -0.156888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.437366, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.374217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.584034, "worst_return": 0.090561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.359097, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.264982, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.882353, "worst_return": -0.098214, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.003339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.802329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.117647, "worst_return": -0.110969, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.293495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.279449, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.506087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.273958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026559, "active": false }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.733656, "energy": 39.793239, "activity_lines": [ 14.894, 14.736, 14.014, 13.527333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.8, "volume": 2339485, "typical_volume": 1956730.75, "trend": 12.874, "fair_value": 8.305064, "relative_strength": 6.768461, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.833749, "energy": 14.983582, "activity_lines": [ 14.137333, 14.395455, 13.968952, 13.527699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.69, "volume": 2022087, "typical_volume": 1928620.1, "trend": 12.949667, "fair_value": 8.362244, "relative_strength": 6.16981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.810888, "energy": 17.157787, "activity_lines": [ 13.458, 14.073091, 13.917857, 13.515828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.78, "volume": 7207501, "typical_volume": 2133115.55, "trend": 12.942667, "fair_value": 8.401026, "relative_strength": -19.204329, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.814454, "energy": 39.524046, "activity_lines": [ 12.022, 13.264364, 13.584714, 13.311333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.31, "volume": 3001455, "typical_volume": 2152557.1, "trend": 12.948, "fair_value": 8.444487, "relative_strength": -17.947258, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.940879, "energy": 52.830171, "activity_lines": [ 11.204667, 12.629636, 13.304381, 13.141484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }