{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b904d2c0-87dc-46f3-94d8-c8e3a8a62535", "symbol": "INEP3", "name": "Inepar S.A. Ind\u00fastria e Constru\u00e7\u00f5es", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.505, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.593, "architecture_energy": 48.023, "architecture_maturity": 16.745, "architecture_confidence": 86.701, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.94, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 24.97, "deceleration": 49.81, "rotation_down": 70.36, "downward_expansion": 52.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.565333, 1.760545, 1.89281, 1.828796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.4, "trend_reference": 1.716333, "distance_from_trend": -0.184308, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.278974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.385689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.629426, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": 0.057048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184308, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.385689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.565652, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 424200, "relative_activity": 1.131804, "balance": 0.565652, "dry_up": 1.346785, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.266484, "annualized_volatility": 0.862093, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.346154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.716333, "fair_value_reference": 2.278974, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.139646, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.129251, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.054217, "worst_return": -0.262295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.307993, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.349425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.289157, "worst_return": -0.326829, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.278739, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.488145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.186747, "worst_return": -0.370732, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.107317, 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"end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.413043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.07, "volume": 447500, "typical_volume": 849918.0, "trend": 5.377667, "fair_value": 6.740689, "relative_strength": -33.871804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.363633, "energy": 59.733678, 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"relative_strength": 3.23402, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.269152, "energy": 13.235234, "activity_lines": [ 1.830667, 1.939455, 1.971429, 1.85957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.56, "volume": 238200, "typical_volume": 361590.0, "trend": 1.718, "fair_value": 2.296538, "relative_strength": -8.751342, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.438139, "energy": 27.483317, "activity_lines": [ 1.693333, 1.859091, 1.940429, 1.849312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.4, "volume": 424200, "typical_volume": 374800.0, "trend": 1.716333, "fair_value": 2.278974, "relative_strength": -14.629426, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.592835, "energy": 48.023302, "activity_lines": [ 1.565333, 1.760545, 1.89281, 1.828796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }