{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9058df2-cb25-42c6-aee3-39b6da1cf079", "symbol": "PAM", "name": "Pampa Energia SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.252, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.25, "architecture_energy": 28.288, "architecture_maturity": 18.462, "architecture_confidence": 68.025, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.69, "rotation_up": 42.72, "upward_expansion": 73.99, "deceleration": 56.41, "rotation_down": 23.59, "downward_expansion": 12.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.712, 84.083091, 83.413381, 83.142968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 82.36, "trend_reference": 82.838, "distance_from_trend": -0.00577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.388333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.227141, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009501, "excess_performance": -0.135126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017874, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009501, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357917, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 881592, "relative_activity": 0.839487, "balance": 1.357917, "dry_up": 0.761871, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076685, "annualized_volatility": 0.294247, "from_high_reference": -0.128466, "from_low_reference": 0.498817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.838, "fair_value_reference": 66.388333, "structural_low": 69.34, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022474, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008693, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.273578, "worst_return": -0.199677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.152717, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.092148, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.385879, "worst_return": -0.144123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.345018, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.151857, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.674009, "worst_return": 0.03679, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146187, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091362, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05676, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.254729, "energy": 8.774771, "activity_lines": [ 82.753333, 83.063273, 82.701, 82.696108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 81.91, "volume": 555539, "typical_volume": 1132943.7, "trend": 82.963333, "fair_value": 65.550577, "relative_strength": -5.295513, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.550068, "energy": 15.967748, "activity_lines": [ 82.095333, 82.949636, 82.653048, 82.611505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.26, "volume": 903894, "typical_volume": 1097143.45, "trend": 82.864333, "fair_value": 65.839551, "relative_strength": 0.343237, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.376711, "energy": 5.416546, "activity_lines": [ 83.325333, 83.568909, 82.999714, 82.824194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.32, "volume": 859308, "typical_volume": 1082222.15, "trend": 82.874667, "fair_value": 66.147244, "relative_strength": 1.666798, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.752354, "energy": 39.368579, "activity_lines": [ 85.263333, 84.437273, 83.507714, 83.176172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.36, "volume": 881592, "typical_volume": 1050155.65, "trend": 82.838, "fair_value": 66.388333, "relative_strength": -8.227141, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.249529, "energy": 28.287953, "activity_lines": [ 84.712, 84.083091, 83.413381, 83.142968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }