{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9099e48-0ee4-46bb-a860-edeb399629ae", "symbol": "ADANIGREEN", "name": "Adani Green Energy Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.707, "architecture_energy": 28.137, "architecture_maturity": 69.237, "architecture_confidence": 91.229, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.29, "rotation_up": 26.18, "upward_expansion": 60.6, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.95, "downward_expansion": 21.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 1409.580005, 1455.24363, 1425.706427, 1324.944408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1372.400024, "trend_reference": 1190.323332, "distance_from_trend": 0.152964, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1281.774682, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.18979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.412152, "excess_performance": 0.455861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152964, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.231898, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170094, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.412152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8172425, "relative_activity": 0.519495, "balance": 0.750561, "dry_up": 0.861763, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07467, "annualized_volatility": 0.45021, "from_high_reference": -0.158811, "from_low_reference": 0.793987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1190.323332, "fair_value_reference": 1281.774682, "structural_low": 801.400024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.029097, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024292, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.506575, "worst_return": -0.240939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077631, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001664, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.353747, "worst_return": -0.099911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.218494, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.204391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.407556, "worst_return": -0.052972, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", 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1276.829169, "relative_strength": 31.436355, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.992501, "energy": 48.441181, "activity_lines": [ 1485.293319, 1495.707258, 1410.55952, 1298.193009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1383.0, "volume": 8030470, "typical_volume": 15911828.95, "trend": 1176.11333, "fair_value": 1279.203849, "relative_strength": 26.07415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.847853, "energy": 34.342053, "activity_lines": [ 1444.433325, 1476.627259, 1419.879758, 1312.280751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1372.400024, "volume": 8172425, "typical_volume": 15731477.2, "trend": 1190.323332, "fair_value": 1281.774682, "relative_strength": 23.18979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.70712, "energy": 28.137481, "activity_lines": [ 1409.580005, 1455.24363, 1425.706427, 1324.944408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }