{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b909b0d6-ac7c-43e4-b8f0-3908e0989269", "symbol": "NAMS", "name": "NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V. Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.809, "architecture_energy": 61.73, "architecture_maturity": 44.784, "architecture_confidence": 85.454, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.25, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 17.22, "deceleration": 32.2, "rotation_down": 69.35, "downward_expansion": 85.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.233333, 30.710364, 31.805238, 32.018624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.96, "trend_reference": 32.316, "distance_from_trend": -0.134794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.92516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.040359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18484, "excess_performance": -0.372293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.219621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.602638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.473863, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5967054, "relative_activity": 1.066654, "balance": 0.473863, "dry_up": 0.919248, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135669, "annualized_volatility": 0.657083, "from_high_reference": -0.337519, "from_low_reference": 0.213015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.316, "fair_value_reference": 22.92516, "structural_low": 25.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021915, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.069477, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.159868, "worst_return": -0.207033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086505, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.15814, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.545088, "worst_return": -0.124267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.415983, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.296304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.7733, "worst_return": 0.058667, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -5.66428, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.607271, "energy": 12.133922, "activity_lines": [ 33.693333, 33.299091, 33.011095, 32.939871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.68, "volume": 3890840, "typical_volume": 5521218.75, "trend": 32.964333, "fair_value": 22.592019, "relative_strength": -11.756589, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.6418, "energy": 7.048105, "activity_lines": [ 33.349333, 32.906909, 32.924381, 32.849634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.64, "volume": 6003416, "typical_volume": 5492831.4, "trend": 32.776667, "fair_value": 22.706058, "relative_strength": -16.146307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.513975, "energy": 16.208213, "activity_lines": [ 32.24, 32.272, 32.661381, 32.635161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.79, "volume": 4708450, "typical_volume": 5535020.2, "trend": 32.529667, "fair_value": 22.815737, "relative_strength": -21.863038, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.41031, "energy": 43.719431, "activity_lines": [ 30.526667, 31.406182, 32.223238, 32.313441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.96, "volume": 5967054, "typical_volume": 5594179.9, "trend": 32.316, "fair_value": 22.92516, "relative_strength": -25.040359, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.80925, "energy": 61.729927, "activity_lines": [ 29.233333, 30.710364, 31.805238, 32.018624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }