{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b90e3716-3082-4ac5-9ca0-9aed52e34a5f", "symbol": "KAMART", "name": "Karmarts Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.622, "architecture_energy": 50.396, "architecture_maturity": 9.146, "architecture_confidence": 80.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.8, "rotation_up": 15.87, "upward_expansion": 13.51, "deceleration": 52.72, "rotation_down": 59.57, "downward_expansion": 72.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.4, 7.488182, 7.480532, 7.663384 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.25, "trend_reference": 7.961097, "distance_from_trend": -0.089322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.32309, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.222361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.375079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174943, "excess_performance": -0.367268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.222361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3214600, "relative_activity": 1.117182, "balance": 0.367836, "dry_up": 0.974537, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032871, "annualized_volatility": 0.213247, "from_high_reference": -0.249572, "from_low_reference": 0.029286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.961097, "fair_value_reference": 9.32309, "structural_low": 7.043716, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009524, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005147, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.107038, "worst_return": -0.188251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045347, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028072, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.172898, "worst_return": -0.243243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.061831, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.104321, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.053119, "worst_return": -0.29375, "sufficient": false }, { 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7.586573, 7.830547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.65, "volume": 2441900, "typical_volume": 4707167.4, "trend": 8.098352, "fair_value": 9.388763, "relative_strength": -20.846887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.918835, "energy": 24.828153, "activity_lines": [ 7.676667, 7.564014, 7.571263, 7.799801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.45, "volume": 2669500, "typical_volume": 3875577.4, "trend": 8.055394, "fair_value": 9.367835, "relative_strength": -22.652101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.539978, "energy": 18.804182, "activity_lines": [ 7.603333, 7.560714, 7.543015, 7.757972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.35, "volume": 2890600, "typical_volume": 3517587.4, "trend": 8.010721, "fair_value": 9.345783, "relative_strength": -22.369919, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.705136, "energy": 33.836845, "activity_lines": [ 7.506667, 7.533636, 7.512535, 7.712463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.25, "volume": 3214600, "typical_volume": 2877417.4, "trend": 7.961097, "fair_value": 9.32309, "relative_strength": -22.375079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.622118, "energy": 50.396256, "activity_lines": [ 7.4, 7.488182, 7.480532, 7.663384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }