{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b90ea209-8e44-48a7-8168-b0cab14725fb", "symbol": "FNTN", "name": "freenet AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.69, "architecture_energy": 28.459, "architecture_maturity": 50.117, "architecture_confidence": 62.228, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.59, "rotation_up": 22.98, "upward_expansion": 14.46, "deceleration": 66.61, "rotation_down": 40.65, "downward_expansion": 64.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.170667, 24.163636, 24.585825, 24.889659 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.0, "trend_reference": 25.526561, "distance_from_trend": -0.059803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.072388, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.605012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189046, "excess_performance": -0.253685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075834, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1577465, "relative_activity": 0.883619, "balance": 0.784393, "dry_up": 0.802586, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041699, "annualized_volatility": 0.239726, "from_high_reference": -0.233514, "from_low_reference": 0.048035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.526561, "fair_value_reference": 24.072388, "structural_low": 22.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023708, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023727, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.08881, "worst_return": -0.135701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005814, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030351, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.167121, "worst_return": -0.072404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.164971, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185286, "worst_return": 0.082423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-11.508232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.401626, "energy": 78.655544, "activity_lines": [ 23.905333, 24.514448, 24.821921, 25.287328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 1235703, "typical_volume": 2050686.3, "trend": 25.820133, "fair_value": 23.947955, "relative_strength": -8.346365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.659965, "energy": 74.596976, "activity_lines": [ 23.856, 24.383637, 24.752137, 25.176403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.42, "volume": 1481613, "typical_volume": 1981960.7, "trend": 25.733182, "fair_value": 23.986033, "relative_strength": -8.327941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.65636, "energy": 62.40045, "activity_lines": [ 24.0, 24.312364, 24.709741, 25.086071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.32, "volume": 1436427, "typical_volume": 1914563.1, "trend": 25.631205, "fair_value": 24.031485, "relative_strength": -10.323304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.213832, "energy": 36.42811, "activity_lines": [ 24.156, 24.254546, 24.661715, 24.994898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.0, "volume": 1577465, "typical_volume": 1785231.45, "trend": 25.526561, "fair_value": 24.072388, "relative_strength": -13.605012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.69007, "energy": 28.458878, "activity_lines": [ 24.170667, 24.163636, 24.585825, 24.889659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }