{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b90f9571-d926-4631-b588-52512c00cf01", "symbol": "6812", "name": "Saultech Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.997, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.256, "architecture_energy": 57.571, "architecture_maturity": 12.694, "architecture_confidence": 80.516, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.76, "rotation_up": 14.65, "upward_expansion": 27.28, "deceleration": 49.26, "rotation_down": 70.6, "downward_expansion": 56.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.419999, 60.352727, 65.018096, 64.309355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.799999, "trend_reference": 61.481667, "distance_from_trend": -0.108677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.810256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.840801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113821, "excess_performance": -0.327551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078531, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.617302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194235, "relative_activity": 0.12904, "balance": 0.617302, "dry_up": 0.150281, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145985, "annualized_volatility": 0.722913, "from_high_reference": -0.55082, "from_low_reference": 0.280374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.481667, "fair_value_reference": 79.810256, "structural_low": 42.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031169, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.14709, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001753, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020833, "worst_return": -0.024339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.763013, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.536978, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.798942, "worst_return": 0.727083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.339789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032717, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016702, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.224638, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048611, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 39.950001, "volume": 193045, "typical_volume": 253727.0, "trend": 49.933334, "fair_value": 99.274078, "relative_strength": -21.940693, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.20764, 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"typical_volume": 1663450.35, "trend": 61.318333, "fair_value": 79.593269, "relative_strength": -28.093062, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.289947, "energy": 13.599018, "activity_lines": [ 64.100001, 66.156365, 68.459524, 65.484086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.5, "volume": 338982, "typical_volume": 1662289.25, "trend": 61.398333, "fair_value": 79.633333, "relative_strength": -33.000411, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.452679, "energy": 47.149944, "activity_lines": [ 59.98, 63.621819, 67.184286, 64.979678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.599998, "volume": 134170, "typical_volume": 1639477.8, "trend": 61.391667, "fair_value": 79.722756, "relative_strength": -28.220268, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.566872, "energy": 51.795804, "activity_lines": [ 58.246666, 62.134546, 66.259524, 64.734624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 54.799999, "volume": 194235, "typical_volume": 1505234.55, "trend": 61.481667, "fair_value": 79.810256, "relative_strength": -32.840801, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.255812, "energy": 57.570587, "activity_lines": [ 56.419999, 60.352727, 65.018096, 64.309355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }