{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b913ca8b-90b3-4cac-ba64-a2056361324e", "symbol": "EAFG", "name": "PACER FDS TR DEVELOPED MKTS CASH COWS GROWTH LEADERS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.885, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.233, "architecture_energy": 19.038, "architecture_maturity": 26.29, "architecture_confidence": 82.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.18, "rotation_up": 23.59, "upward_expansion": 46.99, "deceleration": 84.14, "rotation_down": 39.14, "downward_expansion": 29.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.293173, 25.478085, 25.509705, 25.243919 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.975, "trend_reference": 24.961946, "distance_from_trend": 0.040584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.242495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.790945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057388, "excess_performance": -0.068237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038129, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057388, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.787049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 530, "relative_activity": 0.127954, "balance": 1.787049, "dry_up": 0.169962, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033779, "annualized_volatility": 0.226384, "from_high_reference": -0.038675, "from_low_reference": 0.239896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.961946, "fair_value_reference": 21.242495, "structural_low": 22.375093, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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4673.2, "trend": 24.644917, "fair_value": 21.074805, "relative_strength": 0.141235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.045188, "energy": 51.251759, "activity_lines": [ 26.014707, 25.846077, 25.394545, 25.089243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.74, "volume": 1696, "typical_volume": 4687.65, "trend": 24.738996, "fair_value": 21.113361, "relative_strength": -1.377801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.976995, "energy": 43.438772, "activity_lines": [ 25.95908, 25.845825, 25.466626, 25.159894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.955, "volume": 187, "typical_volume": 4422.35, "trend": 24.804399, "fair_value": 21.144849, "relative_strength": -2.865908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.84189, "energy": 15.722816, "activity_lines": [ 25.589373, 25.693036, 25.46087, 25.173829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.7886, "volume": 1359, "typical_volume": 4300.8, "trend": 24.850665, "fair_value": 21.174473, "relative_strength": -2.923657, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.763187, "energy": 15.361928, "activity_lines": [ 25.237133, 25.536126, 25.441839, 25.17281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.8767, "volume": 740, "typical_volume": 4233.75, "trend": 24.898852, "fair_value": 21.20433, "relative_strength": -3.635571, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.738191, "energy": 15.33825, "activity_lines": [ 25.044527, 25.401906, 25.426966, 25.17449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.975, "volume": 530, "typical_volume": 4142.1, "trend": 24.961946, "fair_value": 21.242495, "relative_strength": -2.790945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.232654, "energy": 19.037808, "activity_lines": [ 25.293173, 25.478085, 25.509705, 25.243919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }