{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9189973-3c18-4530-893b-ac0e6b0f95e5", "symbol": "XMUS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.267, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.528, "architecture_energy": 67.857, "architecture_maturity": 89.09, "architecture_confidence": 65.218, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 53.78, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.41, "rotation_down": 29.13, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.393331, 196.61727, 193.729379, 189.293998 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 201.5, "trend_reference": 184.066998, "distance_from_trend": 0.09471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 156.552307, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28711, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.153572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158845, "excess_performance": -0.012047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040622, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158845, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.530996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12534, "relative_activity": 1.167719, "balance": 2.530996, "dry_up": 1.083196, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017835, "annualized_volatility": 0.119119, "from_high_reference": -0.002623, "from_low_reference": 0.243597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 184.066998, "fair_value_reference": 156.552307, "structural_low": 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13610.55, "trend": 182.654331, "fair_value": 155.534166, "relative_strength": -2.434674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.729663, "energy": 65.194858, "activity_lines": [ 196.477331, 195.741452, 191.709045, 187.414621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 193.589996, "volume": 12272, "typical_volume": 11881.8, "trend": 183.305331, "fair_value": 156.014166, "relative_strength": -4.279798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.196417, "energy": 60.012416, "activity_lines": [ 195.61733, 195.463997, 192.390283, 188.120148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 201.5, "volume": 12534, "typical_volume": 10733.75, "trend": 184.066998, "fair_value": 156.552307, "relative_strength": -3.153572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.527536, "energy": 67.857195, "activity_lines": [ 197.393331, 196.61727, 193.729379, 189.293998 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }