{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b919bc83-51ae-4553-bc70-79d60e6fa4b7", "symbol": "300629", "name": "Guangdong Kingstrong Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.697, "architecture_energy": 82.956, "architecture_maturity": 28.09, "architecture_confidence": 86.351, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.84, "rotation_up": 9.65, "upward_expansion": 20.52, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 74.88, "downward_expansion": 93.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.283333, 18.398727, 20.512334, 21.623252 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.9, "trend_reference": 23.13036, "distance_from_trend": -0.226125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.211022, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114345, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.042943, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26945, "excess_performance": -0.276849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.226125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006797, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114345, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.433512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29688442, "relative_activity": 0.722082, "balance": 0.879263, "dry_up": 0.8243, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119347, "annualized_volatility": 0.492273, "from_high_reference": -0.477268, "from_low_reference": 0.177632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.13036, "fair_value_reference": 20.211022, "structural_low": 15.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.056135, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.039753, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.444853, "worst_return": -0.086093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.163484, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.393051, "worst_return": 0.005695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.171296, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.026644, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.253633, "worst_return": -0.093119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -24.997371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.305596, "energy": 85.496695, "activity_lines": [ 18.018, 19.449712, 21.444242, 22.398498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.940001, "volume": 30090888, "typical_volume": 43661498.0, "trend": 23.323205, "fair_value": 20.221329, "relative_strength": -21.937478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.148999, "energy": 86.76543, "activity_lines": [ 17.372, 18.750182, 20.909802, 21.973136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.9, "volume": 29688442, "typical_volume": 41115073.15, "trend": 23.13036, "fair_value": 20.211022, "relative_strength": -21.042943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.69666, "energy": 82.955747, "activity_lines": [ 17.283333, 18.398727, 20.512334, 21.623252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }