{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b91d4d03-509a-4092-95b6-b1a766e55043", "symbol": "SUZ", "name": "Suzano Papel e Celulose SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.085, "architecture_energy": 22.719, "architecture_maturity": 82.853, "architecture_confidence": 69.746, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.66, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 20.76, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 24.0, "downward_expansion": 57.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.302667, 8.203273, 8.316615, 8.660383 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.22, "trend_reference": 9.114767, "distance_from_trend": -0.098167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.525156, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.005046, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150735, "excess_performance": -0.27636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150735, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.058748, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12937659, "relative_activity": 0.873896, "balance": 2.058748, "dry_up": 0.784583, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052639, "annualized_volatility": 0.347309, "from_high_reference": -0.28731, "from_low_reference": 0.088021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.114767, "fair_value_reference": 9.525156, "structural_low": 7.555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0405, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.021266, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.194067, "worst_return": -0.223764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.1124, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.055139, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.255133, "worst_return": -0.150137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020584, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.365457, "worst_return": -0.050839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.781338, "energy": 42.393782, "activity_lines": [ 8.132, 8.125636, 8.374971, 8.764346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.52, "volume": 12669398, "typical_volume": 15602157.1, "trend": 9.159066, "fair_value": 9.533094, "relative_strength": -14.798402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.189508, "energy": 28.44552, "activity_lines": [ 8.294, 8.193636, 8.356534, 8.720968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.22, "volume": 12937659, "typical_volume": 14804578.4, "trend": 9.114767, "fair_value": 9.525156, "relative_strength": -20.005046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.084847, "energy": 22.718725, "activity_lines": [ 8.302667, 8.203273, 8.316615, 8.660383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }