{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b923644d-4dd9-4a80-a4b6-172413649443", "symbol": "BUG", "name": "Global X Cybersecurity UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.863, "architecture_energy": 69.076, "architecture_maturity": 68.445, "architecture_confidence": 86.12, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 61.74, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.21, "rotation_down": 25.0, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.209733, 14.887636, 13.806833, 12.863914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.824, "trend_reference": 11.875567, "distance_from_trend": 0.332484, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.326295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28376, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.525819, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.576724, "excess_performance": 0.405832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.332484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28376, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.330777, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115258, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.289717, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.576724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.882781, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36219, "relative_activity": 1.38355, "balance": 5.882781, "dry_up": 0.825455, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060697, "annualized_volatility": 0.432036, "from_high_reference": -0.038289, "from_low_reference": 0.793088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.875567, "fair_value_reference": 12.326295, "structural_low": 8.825, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.000935, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.012601, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.207397, "worst_return": -0.105305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017509, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009271, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157659, "worst_return": -0.090363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013098, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.067943, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.174093, "worst_return": -0.0459, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 14.726, "volume": 15838, "typical_volume": 24131.35, "trend": 11.631767, "fair_value": 12.255263, "relative_strength": 7.23173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.81237, "energy": 81.763064, "activity_lines": [ 15.133867, 14.534618, 13.2499, 12.417157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.47, "volume": 14407, "typical_volume": 24535.3, "trend": 11.7375, "fair_value": 12.286474, "relative_strength": 4.985919, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.854437, "energy": 65.377803, "activity_lines": [ 14.974533, 14.600618, 13.473967, 12.600269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.824, "volume": 36219, "typical_volume": 26178.3, "trend": 11.875567, "fair_value": 12.326295, "relative_strength": 11.525819, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.863456, "energy": 69.075973, "activity_lines": [ 15.209733, 14.887636, 13.806833, 12.863914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }