{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b92a104b-f5d9-476e-8809-e05de30c8a56", "symbol": "PTL", "name": "Polyplex (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.181, "architecture_energy": 78.286, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.322, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 76.87, "upward_expansion": 91.54, "deceleration": 48.06, "rotation_down": 13.81, "downward_expansion": 15.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.506667, 13.934545, 12.397619, 11.527849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.9, "trend_reference": 10.426667, "distance_from_trend": 0.429028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.541451, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.365823, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.886076, "excess_performance": 0.693751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.429028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.513012, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.303658, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.436693, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.886076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.011103, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3314200, "relative_activity": 0.7716, "balance": 3.011103, "dry_up": 0.903782, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068663, "annualized_volatility": 0.616754, "from_high_reference": -0.013245, "from_low_reference": 0.986667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.426667, "fair_value_reference": 10.541451, "structural_low": 7.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.006849, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.032407, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.467337, "worst_return": -0.278431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.154353, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.094685, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.438776, "worst_return": -0.267031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.133375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.161361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050791, "worst_return": -0.376196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.313333, 13.16, 11.732619, 10.961613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.1, "volume": 1839000, "typical_volume": 5053575.0, "trend": 10.206667, "fair_value": 10.519307, "relative_strength": 22.886775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.26896, "energy": 86.971279, "activity_lines": [ 14.26, 13.517273, 12.037857, 11.225054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.9, "volume": 3314200, "typical_volume": 4295230.0, "trend": 10.426667, "fair_value": 10.541451, "relative_strength": 30.365823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.180557, "energy": 78.28594, "activity_lines": [ 14.506667, 13.934545, 12.397619, 11.527849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }