{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b92ac90c-8aad-4bd5-8004-80cb387f3f55", "symbol": "SRG", "name": "Snam S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.495, "architecture_energy": 85.021, "architecture_maturity": 9.326, "architecture_confidence": 82.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.4, "rotation_up": 8.86, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 78.37, "downward_expansion": 92.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.980133, 6.090418, 6.172539, 6.233768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.826, "trend_reference": 6.241519, "distance_from_trend": -0.066573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.726135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.395483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031904, "excess_performance": -0.206151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149531, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031904, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.027073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55, "relative_activity": 0.266022, "balance": 0.027073, "dry_up": 1.977025, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025892, "annualized_volatility": 0.184786, "from_high_reference": -0.154181, "from_low_reference": 0.186868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.241519, "fair_value_reference": 4.726135, "structural_low": 5.796, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029658, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.031231, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057261, "worst_return": -0.023402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037937, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149824, "worst_return": -0.123754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043596, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.046473, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.236127, "worst_return": -0.035123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006942, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.385501, "worst_return": -0.090772, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011523, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.164571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055599, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097178, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000686, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.920506, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 167.5, "trend": 4.083761, "fair_value": 3.812571, "relative_strength": -0.223339, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", 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"trend": 6.229008, "fair_value": 4.702656, "relative_strength": -10.981945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.148262, "energy": 10.913256, "activity_lines": [ 6.223467, 6.22079, 6.264762, 6.286132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.83, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 279.0, "trend": 6.238627, "fair_value": 4.714558, "relative_strength": -16.170542, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.304277, "energy": 62.753455, "activity_lines": [ 6.087067, 6.152533, 6.217017, 6.260389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.826, "volume": 55, "typical_volume": 206.75, "trend": 6.241519, "fair_value": 4.726135, "relative_strength": -18.395483, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.494781, "energy": 85.020531, "activity_lines": [ 5.980133, 6.090418, 6.172539, 6.233768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }