{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b92fd52d-9b12-47b4-8759-f8a6245a182d", "symbol": "VKQ", "name": "Invesco Municipal Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.524, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.767, "architecture_energy": 30.47, "architecture_maturity": 46.69, "architecture_confidence": 72.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.38, "rotation_up": 37.79, "upward_expansion": 65.24, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 26.12, "downward_expansion": 15.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.846494, 9.863535, 9.778788, 9.70754 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.95, "trend_reference": 9.625227, "distance_from_trend": 0.033742, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.652701, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14993, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.552455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040982, "excess_performance": -0.084643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021338, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009738, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040982, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.198773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 833437, "relative_activity": 0.76997, "balance": 1.198773, "dry_up": 0.738121, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018042, "annualized_volatility": 0.097074, "from_high_reference": -0.009633, "from_low_reference": 0.177936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.625227, "fair_value_reference": 8.652701, "structural_low": 9.11229, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"trend": 9.578575, "fair_value": 8.612083, "relative_strength": -2.279357, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.104349, "energy": 75.321231, "activity_lines": [ 9.94092, 9.861059, 9.732528, 9.666737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.68, "volume": 827272, "typical_volume": 1077726.45, "trend": 9.592046, "fair_value": 8.62401, "relative_strength": -4.056096, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.82421, "energy": 43.233249, "activity_lines": [ 9.8556, 9.843595, 9.737023, 9.673281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.78, "volume": 743626, "typical_volume": 1078691.2, "trend": 9.606926, "fair_value": 8.637889, "relative_strength": -4.006722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.880626, "energy": 27.920493, "activity_lines": [ 9.818789, 9.840483, 9.750519, 9.685407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.95, "volume": 833437, "typical_volume": 1082428.4, "trend": 9.625227, "fair_value": 8.652701, "relative_strength": -5.552455, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.766845, "energy": 30.470169, "activity_lines": [ 9.846494, 9.863535, 9.778788, 9.70754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }