{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b933fa54-beb1-4a11-9007-08519d0b153b", "symbol": "HMCH", "name": "HSBC MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.171, "architecture_energy": 22.378, "architecture_maturity": 99.742, "architecture_confidence": 53.531, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.88, "rotation_up": 40.91, "upward_expansion": 24.6, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 17.89, "downward_expansion": 56.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.556467, 7.426582, 7.506967, 7.613928 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.737, "trend_reference": 7.809461, "distance_from_trend": -0.009279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.737001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.061555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077171, "excess_performance": -0.160054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041904, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096021, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077171, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.072937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14561, "relative_activity": 0.135902, "balance": 0.072937, "dry_up": 0.259718, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026784, "annualized_volatility": 0.188761, "from_high_reference": -0.152854, "from_low_reference": 0.120168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.809461, "fair_value_reference": 6.737001, "structural_low": 6.907, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.024824, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.00693, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.184673, "worst_return": -0.114032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.06275, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.062229, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.217359, "worst_return": -0.139421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.093869, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011436, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.064753, "worst_return": -0.185945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.318545, 7.516362, 7.667314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.392, "volume": 53776, "typical_volume": 108496.35, "trend": 7.857884, "fair_value": 6.714319, "relative_strength": -17.302566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.063224, "energy": 50.464422, "activity_lines": [ 7.3002, 7.314618, 7.493148, 7.635265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.625, "volume": 7994, "typical_volume": 106773.4, "trend": 7.83485, "fair_value": 6.724516, "relative_strength": -14.476493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.324547, "energy": 24.789649, "activity_lines": [ 7.4336, 7.361291, 7.493976, 7.620241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.737, "volume": 14561, "typical_volume": 107143.15, "trend": 7.809461, "fair_value": 6.737001, "relative_strength": -14.061555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.170821, "energy": 22.377926, "activity_lines": [ 7.556467, 7.426582, 7.506967, 7.613928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }