{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b936541a-7cd1-436b-b8ac-dd57ba101033", "symbol": "CMDO", "name": "CI Alternative Diversified Opportunities Fund ETF CAD series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.263, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.819, "architecture_energy": 16.263, "architecture_maturity": 12.055, "architecture_confidence": 67.38, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.6, "rotation_up": 21.14, "upward_expansion": 43.03, "deceleration": 78.45, "rotation_down": 36.44, "downward_expansion": 32.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.985664, 20.003436, 20.019684, 19.996915 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.030001, "trend_reference": 19.965062, "distance_from_trend": 0.003253, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.57494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.237826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008802, "excess_performance": -0.111619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003253, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43299, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.240602, "balance": 0.43299, "dry_up": 0.766917, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004226, "annualized_volatility": 0.030861, "from_high_reference": -0.007012, "from_low_reference": 0.042294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.965062, "fair_value_reference": 18.57494, "structural_low": 19.690506, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00999, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014075, "worst_return": -0.001869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031081, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034337, "worst_return": -0.003942, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050956, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062494, "worst_return": 0.032909, 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20.035583, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 3510.0, "trend": 19.916208, "fair_value": 18.481661, "relative_strength": -9.306557, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.60728, "energy": 26.847279, "activity_lines": [ 20.047838, 20.050665, 20.018474, 19.9811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.025616, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3355.0, "trend": 19.929687, "fair_value": 18.49982, "relative_strength": -9.109592, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.064147, "energy": 18.376012, "activity_lines": [ 20.039053, 20.046973, 20.022828, 19.988159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.005678, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3340.0, "trend": 19.941848, "fair_value": 18.51848, "relative_strength": -8.718573, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.493375, "energy": 16.195745, "activity_lines": [ 20.02367, 20.039234, 20.024941, 19.993061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.905998, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 3540.0, "trend": 19.947606, "fair_value": 18.53665, "relative_strength": -9.059459, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.126467, "energy": 12.992399, "activity_lines": [ 19.983084, 20.014216, 20.017523, 19.990749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.969999, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 3410.0, "trend": 19.95681, "fair_value": 18.555459, "relative_strength": -7.983079, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.793984, "energy": 16.445285, "activity_lines": [ 19.971856, 20.00295, 20.01607, 19.992193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.030001, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 3325.0, "trend": 19.965062, "fair_value": 18.57494, "relative_strength": -10.237826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.819124, "energy": 16.262604, "activity_lines": [ 19.985664, 20.003436, 20.019684, 19.996915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }