{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b939540b-6779-421b-afc7-acb962888f5e", "symbol": "JSP", "name": "JSP Pharmaceutical Manufacturing (Thailand) Public Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 93.074, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.307, "architecture_energy": 22.811, "architecture_maturity": 30.405, "architecture_confidence": 63.605, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.01, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 13.58, "deceleration": 62.89, "rotation_down": 34.94, "downward_expansion": 61.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.774667, 1.772182, 1.792993, 1.823433 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.8, "trend_reference": 1.857708, "distance_from_trend": -0.031064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.573631, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.300599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.51034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04375, "excess_performance": -0.236075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018507, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.300599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010105, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066769, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426209, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 416500, "relative_activity": 0.944691, "balance": 0.426209, "dry_up": 0.539993, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050427, "annualized_volatility": 0.212748, "from_high_reference": -0.145573, "from_low_reference": 0.183053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.857708, "fair_value_reference": 2.573631, "structural_low": 1.69, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.002107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015378, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.2125, "worst_return": -0.115044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106599, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.080613, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.225, "worst_return": -0.261468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095803, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006785, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162107, "worst_return": -0.182741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.050258, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04155, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050258, "worst_return": -0.050258, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.081218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132666, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.75, "volume": 73300, "typical_volume": 431825.0, "trend": 1.860128, "fair_value": 2.587565, "relative_strength": -16.609838, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.31917, "energy": 32.455592, "activity_lines": [ 1.764, 1.766364, 1.795757, 1.827312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.8, "volume": 416500, "typical_volume": 440885.0, "trend": 1.857708, "fair_value": 2.573631, "relative_strength": -13.51034, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.307142, "energy": 22.811487, "activity_lines": [ 1.774667, 1.772182, 1.792993, 1.823433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }