{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b93bef63-5f10-419e-ac59-205a07f64480", "symbol": "EVD", "name": "CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.478, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.114, "architecture_energy": 13.078, "architecture_maturity": 10.641, "architecture_confidence": 67.23, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.78, "rotation_up": 39.2, "upward_expansion": 34.99, "deceleration": 36.51, "rotation_down": 15.9, "downward_expansion": 40.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.806667, 56.347091, 55.647541, 56.507092 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 58.75, "trend_reference": 59.033501, "distance_from_trend": -0.004802, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 75.167277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21841, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.865402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126621, "excess_performance": -0.191261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114113, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21841, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060275, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122515, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.853856, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 813405, "relative_activity": 0.692712, "balance": 1.853856, "dry_up": 0.834252, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080466, "annualized_volatility": 0.565819, "from_high_reference": -0.400963, "from_low_reference": 0.237945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.033501, "fair_value_reference": 75.167277, "structural_low": 47.457694, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.089842, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.069956, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.227242, "worst_return": -0.156324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.099494, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.082253, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.348933, "worst_return": -0.116261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.166653, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.036819, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.316328, "worst_return": -0.117232, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 56.220667, 55.11723, 54.987665, 56.676929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.5, "volume": 1174849, "typical_volume": 1195269.2, "trend": 59.652129, "fair_value": 75.164474, "relative_strength": -19.047962, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.177799, "energy": 13.372796, "activity_lines": [ 57.27, 55.742727, 55.284475, 56.565294 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.75, "volume": 813405, "typical_volume": 1174233.1, "trend": 59.033501, "fair_value": 75.167277, "relative_strength": -19.865402, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.113684, "energy": 13.078406, "activity_lines": [ 57.806667, 56.347091, 55.647541, 56.507092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }