{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b93ec014-2fe0-4a4e-87fa-cb97030747ed", "symbol": "300466", "name": "Saimo Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.321, "architecture_energy": 53.456, "architecture_maturity": 73.144, "architecture_confidence": 91.361, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 23.41, "upward_expansion": 8.69, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 53.32, "downward_expansion": 79.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.094, 7.181636, 7.703857, 8.114452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.33, "trend_reference": 8.711, "distance_from_trend": -0.158535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.312564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.60706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.282779, "excess_performance": -0.290179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004848, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26821280, "relative_activity": 0.906482, "balance": 0.256122, "dry_up": 1.00586, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087417, "annualized_volatility": 0.360117, "from_high_reference": -0.360384, "from_low_reference": 0.134675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.711, "fair_value_reference": 8.312564, "structural_low": 6.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.028017, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.008028, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.268212, "worst_return": -0.122195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.159461, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.098933, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.379147, "worst_return": -0.088836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.25594, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.198093, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.585153, "worst_return": -0.081933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.320728, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014583, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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59.210988, "activity_lines": [ 7.018667, 7.194, 7.783571, 8.209398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.33, "volume": 26821280, "typical_volume": 29588330.75, "trend": 8.711, "fair_value": 8.312564, "relative_strength": -23.60706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.32138, "energy": 53.455732, "activity_lines": [ 7.094, 7.181636, 7.703857, 8.114452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }