{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b942a981-f0a1-41ae-80f0-82fc637945b4", "symbol": "600589", "name": "Dawei Technology (Guangdong) Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.209, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.517, "architecture_energy": 76.468, "architecture_maturity": 19.371, "architecture_confidence": 78.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.96, "rotation_up": 9.61, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 37.39, "rotation_down": 76.05, "downward_expansion": 93.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.67, 8.248182, 9.363, 9.841032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.28, "trend_reference": 10.249333, "distance_from_trend": -0.192143, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.139038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.221077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185841, "excess_performance": -0.142637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192143, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.903956, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.782119, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 541032030, "relative_activity": 0.955214, "balance": 1.782119, "dry_up": 0.762325, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166016, "annualized_volatility": 0.810453, "from_high_reference": -0.457049, "from_low_reference": 0.29375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.249333, "fair_value_reference": 6.139038, "structural_low": 6.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.085106, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.07654, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.32871, "worst_return": -0.118943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.244833, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.235346, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.519231, "worst_return": -0.035242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.223158, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.21758, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.02449, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.473171, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.594978, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.924675, "worst_return": -0.004405, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.965517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.213836, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049536, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.283716, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.274068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.279167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121951, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.58, "volume": 73836801, "typical_volume": 67932727.5, "trend": 2.409333, "fair_value": 2.597756, "relative_strength": 8.112382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"2026-07-03", "close": 9.6, "volume": 72560163, "typical_volume": 794205284.85, "trend": 10.163, "fair_value": 5.982179, "relative_strength": 2.015945, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.468336, "energy": 39.00439, "activity_lines": [ 9.7, 10.373818, 10.705619, 10.64043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.71, "volume": 343943795, "typical_volume": 763410299.65, "trend": 10.212667, "fair_value": 6.019423, "relative_strength": -6.223365, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.072654, "energy": 55.857333, "activity_lines": [ 9.328, 9.988545, 10.485905, 10.546688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.33, "volume": 433186536, "typical_volume": 687712432.2, "trend": 10.216667, "fair_value": 6.049231, "relative_strength": -15.90684, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.83377, "energy": 67.205463, "activity_lines": [ 8.62, 9.377091, 10.156095, 10.36071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.92, "volume": 364195361, "typical_volume": 640663127.75, "trend": 10.206333, "fair_value": 6.076154, "relative_strength": -21.174784, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.74084, "energy": 82.073604, "activity_lines": [ 7.91, 8.785273, 9.814429, 10.148022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.38, "volume": 388706722, "typical_volume": 588643003.05, "trend": 10.212, "fair_value": 6.103526, "relative_strength": -15.999296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.469461, "energy": 80.291867, "activity_lines": [ 7.572667, 8.384909, 9.537571, 9.965677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.28, "volume": 541032030, "typical_volume": 566398687.85, "trend": 10.249333, "fair_value": 6.139038, "relative_strength": -8.221077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.516926, "energy": 76.468453, "activity_lines": [ 7.67, 8.248182, 9.363, 9.841032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }